Opinion: Labour won’t deliver 300,000 new homes

Following the debate about how many houses are needed in the UK, industry-expert Peter Brown directs our attention to a topic this argument could be overshadowing.

The debate around how many new homes are needed misjudges the big issue – a new Labour government will struggle to increase housing completions for sale and for rent.

Public services are failing, satisfaction rates are at record lows and waiting lists are soaring. Focusing on hospitals, schools and the courts, the IPPR claimed that public services won’t return to acceptable levels of quality until the 2030s and that the post-election government will inherit one of the most challenging contexts of any government since the Second World War.

In October, at the Labour Party conference Keir Starmer’s pledged 1.5 million homes over the next parliament and conference was told that a Labour government will “deliver the biggest boost in affordable and social housing for a generation”. Yet despite a chronic housing shortage, a new Labour government will struggle to deliver a surge in new social housing. 8 months after Michael Gove failed to allocate housing money, handing back £1.9bn to the Treasury, the situation has deteriorated. In November, the Regulator of Social Housing listed a potent cocktail of obstacles. Persistently high inflation, higher cost of borrowing, challenges accessing skilled labour, and a declining housing market all still playing out. On top of that are rising costs of building materials, cuts in welfare spending, squeezed development funding, and the long shadow of building safety scandals. With insolvency of construction companies 34% higher than pre-pandemic 2019, Labour needs to know that simply increasing the funding for new building won’t work; a new approach will be needed. And after 13 years of adverse economic conditions, the social housing sector remains increasingly hobbled by a complex web of challenges that will continue to dampen ambitions.

We need to change the conversation. Setting unachievable construction targets won’t solve the problem and simply sets Labour up to fail. Headlining 1.5 million homes and the biggest boost in affordable and social housing for a generation are the wrong goals. Put simply, headlining an increase in supply is an output rather than an outcome. It fails to give people confidence that their housing conditions will improve. And simply building more housing is the Tory playbook of unbridled growth to feed the Conservative Party property donors.

It will take time to rebuild public services. The conversation needs to be reframed around quality and access. No-one should live in a home that is unsafe, mouldy or damp. Whether you rent or buy, everyone should be able to access decent housing. Creating the right conversations now, will acknowledge the recent decimation of our public services and set achievable aspirations for the future.

This article was first published on 5th March 2024 in the New Start website: https://newstartmag.co.uk/articles/opinion-labour-wont-deliver-300000-homes/

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